Tuesday 27th May 2025
If the claims in Lord Ashcroft’s latest book are to be believed, Angela Rayner – feeling she was set up for a fall – threatened to quit over the government’s ambitious housing target. Tony Blair was allegedly called in, and a grace-and-favour pad at Admiralty House was offered to placate the agitated housing secretary.
Whatever the truth, it is clear that building 1.5 million homes over the course of this parliament is a huge undertaking and it is understandable that members of the public – and politicians – are sceptical.
History suggests this scepticism is well placed; completions have not breached the 200,000 mark since 1998 and the last time more than 300,000 homes were completed in a year was back in 1969.
While they had 12 housing ministers over the course of their time in government, the Conservatives failed to hit their target of one million new homes during their last term; and their peak of 234,400 net additional dwellings in 2022-23 fell far short of their goal of 300,000 new homes a year by the mid-2020s.
These statistics demonstrate the challenge Labour faces in trying to hit its own higher target, with housing minister Matthew Pennycook admitting last November that the task would be “more difficult than we expected in opposition”. While he called it an “incredibly stretching target”, he also said he was “convinced” it was deliverable and “essential”.
Given the history, is it right to have such an ambitious target? And if so, will aiming for it and potentially falling short further erode public trust in government?
Targets have been extensively used by central government policymakers across various areas, from the NHS to net zero. They signal political priorities and communicate intent to the public and those responsible for delivery. Housing targets focus the efforts of government and industry, and drive delivery. It is a truism that what gets measured gets done.
However, targets must be used thoughtfully, strategically and sparingly. Simply parroting a target in isolation won’t convince those affected by the housing crisis – or those in areas where development is proposed – that the right kind of progress will be made or a solution found.
With more than 100,000 households in temporary accommodation and house prices around eight times the average earnings, it is not just numbers that matter to people on the ground; affordability is also key.
Public perception
According to polling by More In Common last year, in contrast to a political and media debate that sees housebuilding through either a Nimby or a Yimby lens, half the public say their view on development in their area depends on the merits of the proposals in question.
The research shows that the public’s concerns centre on a perception that development would simply lead to more expensive houses being built and little to no new amenities such as schools and GP surgeries being created alongside them. If new housing is not more affordable than what is already on offer, and an influx of new homeowners puts strain on already stretched amenities, then communities will not support it.
Brits, generally speaking, are not against housebuilding. But their support is contingent on their concerns being addressed and progress consistently demonstrated.
The government must provide clear and honest explanations as it works towards its ambitious target. And Labour’s policy changes will take time to manifest. Reforming planning regulations, training skilled tradespeople and increasing investment in affordable housing require time to translate into tangible increases in housing numbers. Effective communication about these efforts and their expected timelines is essential to maintain public trust and build support.
Ministers reportedly anticipate no more than 200,000 net additional dwellings from the last financial year, creating a growing shortfall that will need to be addressed in the later years of this parliament. This could necessitate building as many as 400,000 new homes annually by the late 2020s to meet targets.
Gaining and maintaining support from all stakeholders will be crucial in achieving the housing target, despite the challenging circumstances. Scrapping it is not an option.
Claire Kober
Managing Director (Homes), Pinnacle Group
This article was originally featured in Property Week, on 21st May 2025.